Monday, December 8, 2008

The Obama Obsession


"In just a few weeks the young man would become President of the United States, and to the newspapermen standing outside his Georgetown house, there was an air of excitement about every small act, every gesture, every word, every visitor to his temporary headquarters. They complained less than usual, the bitter cold notwithstanding; they felt themselves part of history: the old was going out and the new was coming in, and the new seemed exciting, promising."

David Halberstam
"The Best and the Brightest"


Something's been bothering me since the November elections, and I've been trying to put my finger on it for the last five weeks.

I think I've come close to identifying it.

There is an obsession in the land, and I'm not referring to the Calvin Klein perfume or an old song by Guns N' Roses or any one of several films with "obsession" in the title.

I'm referring to the general public (as well as media) infatuation with Barack Obama.

For some reason, many of the people who voted for Obama seem to be under the impression that everything will start to improve immediately when he takes office.

I wrote about this, indirectly, after reading a column by Gail Collins in the New York Times a few weeks ago that suggested that George W. Bush and Dick Cheney should resign and let Nancy Pelosi become president.

In the interim between taking office and Obama's January 20 inauguration, Collins wrote, Pelosi could start implementing Obama's policies.

At the time, I observed that Collins' suggestion was creative but improbable.

However, it's also indicative of a much greater public psychological problem.

Bush may be the lamest lame duck you've ever seen hobbling around the West Wing, but he's still the duly elected president until Obama takes the oath of office.

I'll grant you that nothing, constructive or otherwise, is being done in the waning days of Bush's watch. And Collins made a valid point by quoting presidential historian Michael Beschloss, who observed that "Doing nothing is almost the worst thing a president can do."

Perhaps, over the long haul, Bush's do-nothing, limp-across-the-finish-line approach won't make a real difference — other than to reinforce the perception of him as a puppet ruler. It certainly won't enhance his "legacy," such as it is.

But it just might not make any difference.

Obama talked a lot during the campaign about health care reform, which is a noble endeavor. But, as the Clintons learned, it's much easier said than done.

As Robert Laszewski argued in an entry in The Health Care Blog a few days after the election, major health care reform is not likely in 2009 or 2010 — even with a Democratic president and sizable Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.

In fact, Laszewski pointed out, Obama will have the same majorities in both chambers that Bill Clinton had when he took office in 1993.

"In the House ... last session we had 49 'Blue Dog' Democrats and will have at least that many this time," he wrote. "Without 'Blue Dog' support, the Democrats will not have a majority on any health care bill. No big health care reform can pass without the support of these fiscally conservative Democrats who are pledged to a pay-as-you-go policy ...

"In the Senate, it appears the Democrats should have 57 or 58 seats in January. But Republicans can stop a big Democratic health care bill with only 41 votes and they will likely have 42 or 43. Forty-three is exactly the number of seats Bob Dole had when he stopped the Clinton Health Plan in 1994."


As I say, it may make no long-term difference if Bush spends his final weeks as president picking out the carpets and drapes for his new home in an affluent section of Dallas. But it's not making things easier for the team that will take over in January.

And, after Obama takes office, Collins and many of the millions of Americans who voted for him may be disappointed to learn that a change in administration does not mean immediate change, no matter how earnestly it may be desired.

This is not a dictatorship — remember how Bush suggested that everything would be easier if it were? — and a president must work with 100 senators and 435 representatives.

Obama doesn't have a full term in the Senate under his belt, but he's been around long enough to know how the system works.

And he spent enough time on the campaign trail to know how impatient the press can get. If he forgot in the weeks since the campaign ended, he got a reminder during the weekend, when he was interviewed by Tom Brokaw on "Meet the Press."

Brokaw quizzed Obama on economic issues, foreign affairs and even zeroed in on his smoking habit, which reportedly is more than two decades old now.

Obama also reportedly has struggled in recent years to give it up.

"Have you stopped smoking?" Brokaw asked directly, just before the end of the interview.

Obama, who had fielded a variety of questions, seemed to be caught off-guard. He said he had stopped smoking, but he admitted that "there are times where I have fallen off the wagon."

Brokaw jumped. "Wait a minute. That means you haven't stopped."

Obama retreated, saying "Fair enough," then asserting that he had done a "terrific job under the circumstances of making myself much healthier."

That's good for Obama, but he can be a real role model by being as public as possible about his quest and encouraging those who are trying to stop smoking in the current economy. Tough times require straight talk.

"People will not stop smoking in recession, they might even smoke more because they are nervous," a professor at London's Cass Business School told Reuters.

Do you suppose that means the tobacco companies won't be needing a bailout?

I know how difficult it is to stop smoking. Obama certainly isn't the first person who has done some backsliding when trying to give it up. But reforming the health care system is going to be even more difficult — and require more long-term dedication.

So will mending the economy.

So will securing our borders — and ending an unpopular war.

Might be a good idea to hold off on those commemorative plates and coins celebrating Obama's inauguration.

I know there's a temptation to try to make a few bucks from the historic inauguration of the first black president.

But every president — good or bad — has taken the oath of office.

Let's wait until Obama has done something to commemorate — other than raising his right hand.

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