Future Shock

In my life, I've often wondered if, during times of economic distress, comedians feel torn.

Do they vote for a candidate because he/she will be good for their country? Or do they pick a candidate because he/she will be good for their business?

On the eve of a new presidential administration, I wonder if there are some Republican politicians who feel somewhat the same way.

If the new administration's policies to battle the recession are successful, a lot of people can be spared a lot of pain. But that could also mean a real windfall of good will and support at the ballot box for the majority party in 2010.

For Republicans, the year 2012, when Democrats must defend the White House and 24 of 33 Senate seats, is the proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. But the storm isn't over yet. "Republicans first have to get past the 2010 races that, at first glance, would appear to put the GOP at a disadvantage for a third straight cycle," say Charlie Cook and Jennifer Duffy in the National Journal.

And, after taking a beating in the elections of 2006 and 2008, the Republicans won't be anxious for a three-peat.

But that just might be the alternative.

Cook and Duffy observe that, because of the gains Republicans enjoyed earlier in this decade, they will go into the 2010 Senate elections with more seats to defend than the Democrats.

Republicans hold 19 seats that will be up for election in 2010. Democrats hold 15. However, two of those Democrats will be appointees, chosen to replace Barack Obama and Interior Secretary-designate Ken Salazar for the last two years of their terms. Those are the seats that are up in this phase of the naturally recurring election cycle.

There also will be special elections for the remainder of Hillary Clinton's and Joe Biden's terms, which will be filled for the next two years by appointees. Thus, the Democrats will have 17 seats to defend in 2010, and four will be held by appointees.

"Ultimately, not all of the appointed senators will find themselves in competitive races, but these 17 seats are all at more risk than they were a month ago," Cook and Duffy write. "With potential retirements still unknown, one other very vulnerable Democratic seat is that held by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, whose poll numbers are somewhat anemic."

If Barack Obama and the Democrats can preside over a clearly recovering economy, they will have a real opportunity to claim the "veto-proof majority" that just barely slipped through their fingers this time.

Two Republican incumbents that I know of — Florida's Mel Martinez and Kansas' Sam Brownback — have announced that they will not seek re-election. Republicans probably can expect to retain Brownback's seat, but Martinez's may be different.

Cook and Duffy agree that Florida is vulnerable. They also suggest that Republican seats in Kentucky and Louisiana are in "immediate danger." And, they write, GOP senators in Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania "could face difficult races if Democrats recruit the right challengers."

However, numbers from the last 10 midterm elections (going back to 1970) indicate an average net loss of 2.7 seats for the party in power, they point out.

"[I]t's hard to think that national dynamics won't be at work, one way or another," they write. "New presidents often make missteps, and their honeymoons can end quickly. If that happens this time, a few of the vulnerable Republican seats would likely become less so, and a few of the Democratic seats that appear relatively safe would come into play.

"On the other hand, if Republicans are still 8 or 9 points behind in party affiliation, if their 'brand' hasn't been repaired, and if they are still facing a competence gap — an attribute they used to own — this could be yet another very painful cycle for them."