Spinning McCain's Gamble

John McCain has the soul of a riverboat gambler.

Before the start of the Republican convention, McCain was believed to have a problem with true-believer conservatives, and the perception of political observers was that Barack Obama's campaign had not adequately appealed to disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters, even after both Bill and Hillary Clinton were given prominent roles to play at the Democratic convention.

McCain, conventional wisdom held, needed a running mate who would reassure social conservatives, and it wouldn't hurt if his running mate could help the Republicans attract some of the disappointed female activists who had more in common with Obama philosophically but remained wary of him, nevertheless.

To address both needs, McCain rolled the dice and named Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate.

For awhile, the Palin gambit appeared to pay off, but now it seems to be wearing off.

Time to roll the dice again.

Last week, as the dimensions of the financial crisis were becoming painfully clear, McCain was all over the place, suggesting that the presidential candidates suspend their campaign until the situation was resolved and saying that he would remain in Washington to work on the bailout plan instead of joining Obama for the first presidential debate.

McCain went ahead with the debate, and it does not appear that he has suspended his campaign indefinitely.

But the real gamble was on the bailout plan itself. That was a gamble McCain lost. The bailout plan was rejected by the House, 228-205, today.

It's not hard to imagine the outcome McCain was hoping for — the bailout package passes and the market rallies. McCain is the hero and the recipient of tons of positive press coverage, all without spending a dime of his own campaign funds.

But that's the fantasy. The reality is something different.

McCain can point out that only about four House Republicans supported the measure when he returned to Washington last week to make his bid to be the hero — and it's true that about one-third of the Republicans in the House ended up voting for it, which means that McCain at least helped persuade about 60 of his fellow Republicans to support it.

That speaks well for McCain's ability to persuade, and that's the spin McCain needs to use. But I'm doubtful that it will work.

Politics is a bottom-line game. And the bottom line in this matter — thus far — is that no bailout plan has been approved.

McCain gambled that he could demonstrate leadership qualities to the American public on the most critical issue facing the voters. He invested his time and his effort and was not successful.

If the bailout plan had been approved — and if the stock market hadn't plunged nearly 800 points today — it would have been the kind of longshot payoff that a gambler like McCain needs to level the playing field.

But the gamble didn't pay off. And, as a result, McCain may find himself having to make up even more ground in less time — and in increasingly hostile territory.