The Significance of 60

The leaders of the two major political parties talk a good game when it comes to subjects like bipartisanship and democracy and a free market — but the truth is, both would like to have a monopoly on legislative power. It's at the top of their private wish lists.

As George W. Bush said, first as governor of Texas in 1998 and then as president-elect in 2000, "If this were a dictatorship, it would be a heckuva lot easier."

At the heart of everything is a simple desire — to be in the majority.

The party that is in the majority determines the agenda. That's a pretty powerful incentive right there — being able to call the shots. And, for the majority party, the members of the minority party are merely a nuisance.

But how much of a nuisance?

Neither party is ever satisfied with simply achieving a majority or narrowing the gap. With certain milestones come new powers that draw the majority party ever closer to that ultimate goal of monopoly.

In 2006, the pendulum swung from the Republicans to the Democrats in both houses of Congress. But, while the Democrats staked out a clear majority in the House, they had to depend on the aid of a couple of independent senators — one of whom ran for re-election as an independent after being rejected for renomination by his state's Democrats — to cobble together their majority in the Senate.

In 2008, about two-thirds of the Senate seats that are up for election are held by Republicans — and, at last count, five of those seats are being vacated by the incumbents. Indications are that most of the open seats are vulnerable to being captured by the Democrats — and some of the Republican incumbents who are running for re-election appear to be in trouble as well.

Meanwhile, all the Democratic incumbents are running for re-election, and only one, Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, seems to be in any kind of trouble. Landrieu, however, currently looks to be in control of her race and, with six weeks left until the election, her opponent is going to need to ride a pretty impressive wave to take the seat away from her.

So, with the Democrats generally expected to hold their Senate seats and pick up some that are currently held by Republicans, political observers are wondering if Democrats can achieve the next plateau of power — a three-fifths majority, or 60 seats.

Possession of a three-fifths majority would give the Democrats the power to choke off Republican filibusters and impose their will on the Republicans in other ways as well.

What would Democrats need to achieve a three-fifths majority? Well, Democrats hold 49 seats, plus there are two independent senators (from Vermont and Connecticut) who caucus with the Democrats. That is what accounts for their 51-49 lead.

But, if Connecticut's Joe Lieberman — who endorsed John McCain for president nearly a year ago, when most observers expected the Republican nominee to be Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney — decided to become a Republican, the chamber would be divided 50-50, with Dick Cheney providing the tiebreaking vote and giving control of the Senate to the GOP for Bush's final months in office.

If you assume that both independents will remain with the Democrats, the party needs to win nine more seats to reach 60.

If Lieberman decides he is more comfortable with the Republicans, Democrats will need 10 takeovers in November.

And, if Vermont's Bernie Sanders chooses to caucus with the Republicans, the Democrats would need to take over 11 seats.

Realistically, neither Leiberman nor Sanders (based on their voting records) would be likely to defect to the Republicans.

To build a bullet-proof three-fifths majority, however, Democrats would prefer to have enough party members occupying seats in the chamber that they wouldn't need to rely on the help of the independents.

That's not going to be easy to achieve. It would require the Democrats to take over seats at a clip that has rarely been seen since the Great Depression.

In Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg writes that he believes Democrats are in a position to have 60 votes in their coalition (including Lieberman and Sanders) because nine Republican-held seats appear to be in jeopardy.

And, as we get closer to the election, Rothenberg asserts that the chances of Democrats controlling 60 Senate seats in the next Congress increasingly depend on what happens in three states — North Carolina, Minnesota and Mississippi.

• In Minnesota, comedian Al Franken is challenging one-term Republican Sen. Norm Coleman.
  
  On the surface, it may seem (pardon the expression) laughable to think that a state would elect a comedian to the Senate. But remember, this is Minnesota we're talking about. Ten years ago, Minnesota elected a wrestler as its governor.
  
  It may be close, but I believe Franken has a legitimate chance to win.


• I can't say the same thing about North Carolina. Sen. Elizabeth Dole seems to have a fight on her hands, but I'm inclined to believe she will be re-elected, even if the margin is close.
  
  In fact, I expect the margin to be close. North Carolina is pretty much split down the middle, with Republicans holding a narrow advantage in the state. It's been that way for a long time. Mathematically, there's a chance that Dole will be denied another term in the Senate, but I don't think it's likely.


• As nearly as I can tell, the only reason Mississippi is considered a toss-up is because the duly elected incumbent, Trent Lott, resigned last year, and the man who was appointed to fill the seat has a limited record as a senator and is facing the voters in a statewide race for the first time.
  
  At the time of his appointment, Lott's replacement had been a member of the House for more than a decade.
  
  I have to believe Lott's successor (who started his political career as Lott's political counsel) will be ratified by the voters in November.

That would leave the Democrats a few votes short of 60 — but still in a stronger position than they are in today.

Thus, if McCain wakes up on Nov. 5 to the realization that he has been elected president but the new Senate will have 58 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, he will know that he has his work cut out for him in the first two years of his presidency.