A Slight Revision

Nearly three months ago, I made my first prediction on the ultimate outcome in the Electoral College between Barack Obama and John McCain.

It was a few days after the final presidential primaries had been held, and Hillary Clinton had conceded to Obama. For the first time in 2008, the Democrats had a presumptive presidential nominee.

At the time, I predicted that McCain would win 295 electoral votes and Obama would win 243.

It is traditional, on Labor Day, to make a prediction in a presidential race. That prediction is then revised periodically in the two months leading up to the election.

Well, I really only want to make one adjustment to my earlier prediction today — although there are a few states I plan to keep my eyes on for awhile.

Originally, I predicted that Michigan and its 17 electoral votes would go for McCain. But, today, I believe the state will vote for Obama.

That reduces McCain's margin in my scenario to 278 to 260.

A couple of states that I'm going to be watching are Colorado and New Hampshire, which are both predicted to be swing states. I still feel fairly confident that New Hampshire will vote for McCain, but I'm not sure about Colorado.

If Colorado, with its 9 electoral votes, supports Obama — and the rest of my prediction is correct — the electoral vote will be tied, 269-269.

And the decision will go to the House of Representatives.

Since the Democrats are expected to hold the majority in the House, that would mean that Obama would be likely to win. Right?

Well, not necessarily.

It's my understanding that, in this kind of proceeding, each state counts as one vote. Instead of relying on more than 400 individual votes to select the president, the emphasis would be on the 50 states.

In Texas, we have 30 congressional districts. But our House delegation would have only one vote in determining the president — the same as Illinois, which has 20 congressional districts, or, say, Delaware or Alaska, each of which has only one congressman.

In the House of Representatives, you must win a majority of the states to win the presidency.

There could be all sorts of situations going on.

For example, a state might vote for the nominee of Party A in the presidential race in November, but its congressional delegation has a one-seat margin favoring Party B. When the issue is brought to the House for a vote, will the state's House delegation respect the initial wishes of the voters? Or will it vote along party lines?

We could witness a frenzy of political lobbying that we've never seen before in this country.