Forecasting the Weather

It may have seemed, to the casual political observer, that the subject of Barack Obama's acquaintance with William Ayers (of Weather Underground infamy) suddenly popped up during Wednesday night's debate.

But, as Joanna Weiss writes in the Boston Globe, the story has been sort of floating around for quite awhile.

And, as Weiss summarizes the words of Clint Hendler of the Columbia Journalism Review, "the slow rise of the Ayers story -- and its seemingly sudden appearance Wednesday night -- largely reflects Obama's surge to front-runner status, which brings more scrutiny."

If Obama wins the nomination, he's going to have to get used to a fundamental change in his life. Every word he says, every relationship in his life, every occupational endeavor will be scrutinized more heavily than ever. This is 2008, not 1995 when he was running for state senator in Illinois.

And it was in 1995, by the way, when Weiss indicates that this story had its roots.

"The news that Obama held a campaign event at Ayers' home in 1995 and served with Ayers on a Chicago community board, was either damning or innocuous, a worthy disclosure or a sure sign of the decline of political journalism," Weiss reports.

When ABC's George Stephanopoulos brought up the subject Wednesday night, Weiss says, "[i]t was, for many Americans, an introduction to a subject that could linger in the public consciousness for months."

It's already been whispered about for a few years.

"In January 2005, in a progressive liberal blog called 'Musings & Migraines,' a Chicago-based blogger named Maria Warren -- whose writing suggested she was to the left of Obama -- recalled watching the candidate give a 'standard, innocuous little talk' in 1995, in the living room of Ayers and his wife ... when Obama was running for the state Senate," Weiss reports.

Apparently, that blog is still up and running. I found it fairly easily and located the entry to which Weiss refers. You can read it here.

The blogger went on to say, "By voting to confirm Condoleezza Rice for Secretary of State you confirmed my opinion of you as someone who will not come through when it counts. You voted with the entire Republican membership rather than your compadre, Dick Durbin, and the man you supported for president, John Kerry. Your sense of collegiality is ridiculous under the circumstances.

"What are all those people who thought you walked on water thinking now?"

That's a relevant question, now that the Ayers story has bubbled to the surface.

"When Obama became a presidential contender, it was conservatives who picked up on the (Ayers) story," Weiss says. "Soon, the story turned up in the mainstream American press ... At that point, conservative bloggers began to question whether the major media organizations would challenge Obama on the relationship."

Well, the challenge is out there now. If Obama's judgment is as good as he claims it is, this would be a good time to demonstrate it.

Not that there has been a shortage of opportunities lately.

"The Democrats are doing everything they can to blow this presidential election," writes Bob Herbert in the New York Times.

"This is a skill that comes naturally to the party. There is no such thing as a can’t-miss year for the Democrats. They are truly gifted at finding ways to lose."

As Will Rogers said, "Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment."