Never Assume

It's been widely assumed that, conditions being what they are in this election year, the Democratic presidential nominee will win the election.

Well, as John Kerry or Michael Dukakis could tell you, it's never safe to assume.

There's no such thing as a sure thing. That's why they call it gambling, whether you're talking about a horse race or a political race.

"In politics, as in life, the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence," writes Republican pundit William Kristol in the New York Times. "Many Republicans I know see the weaknesses of their party and of the McCain campaign all too clearly, and assume Obama will prevail. But a surprising number of Democrats with whom I’ve spoken expect a McCain victory."

Polls are a good indicator of where things stand. But, as always, poll figures only serve as a "snapshot" of the electorate -- in this case, in early April of the election year. The Democrats hold their convention in August, the Republicans hold their convention in September, and the general election is in November.

The polls can tell us where we are (approximately) on April 7, but they can't tell us where we will be on November 4.

Rasmussen Reports finds John McCain leading Barack Obama, 46% to 45%, and Gallup finds a tie, with both candidates at 45%. CBS News/New York Times says Obama has the lead, 47% to 42%, and NBC/Wall Street Journal reports a narrower lead for Obama, 44% to 42%.

When the match-up is McCain against Hillary Clinton, McCain leads in Rasmussen by 3 percentage points, 47% to 44%, Gallup by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, and NBC/Wall Street Journal by 2 percentage points, 46% to 44%.

Clinton leads the CBS News/New York Times poll by 5 percentage points, 48% to 43%.

Kind of shoots down the notion of a cakewalk for the Democratic nominee, doesn't it?

Right now, it's anyone's guess who the Democratic nominee will be. And the next player in that drama will be Pennsylvania, which holds its primary in two weeks.

Clinton once held a huge lead in Pennsylvania, but the polls are showing a tighter race now. That benefits Obama, even if Clinton wins the primary. Clinton needs massive victories in just about every remaining primary to overcome her rival in the all-important popular vote.

Nominees win nominations with delegates, but the Democratic campaign has reached the point where, in order to persuade the "super-delegates" to support her cause, Clinton will have to demonstrate to their satisfaction that she is the choice in the popular vote. And she will need resounding victories in the remaining primaries to achieve that.

Clinton continues to hold the lead in Pennsylvania, but polls show her lead dropping into single digits.

Survey USA (53% to 41%) and the Allentown Call (49% to 38%) still show Clinton with double-digit leads, but Quinnipiac University (50% to 41%), Strategic Vision (49% to 41%), Rasmussen (47% to 42%) and Insider Advantage (45% to 42%) see Clinton's lead eroding.

Public Policy Polling reports that Clinton's lead has eroded and Obama has taken over, 45% to 43%.

To win the nomination at this point, Clinton will have to do better than beat Obama in Pennsylvania by what amounts to the margin of error.