Whistling Past the Graveyard

I guess I've become numb to all the forecasts this year (and late last year) that erroneously suggested that the end of the recession was at hand — or at least in sight.

Consequently, I am not terribly impressed today with CNNMoney.com's report that "U.S. companies are planning to hire and invest more in the near future."

That conclusion is the result of a National Association for Business Economics survey.

Hold on for a minute or two! Don't start popping those champagne corks just yet.

CNNMoney.com also says the survey revealed a conviction on the part of the economists that "another 175,000 jobs were lost in October." That seems like a key component to me — even though CNNMoney.com doesn't mention it until several paragraphs into the story. I know I'm not an economist, but if the economy is still losing jobs, how is the jobs situation getting better?

The jobs loss may be less than anticipated, but haven't we been down this road before? On at least a couple of occasions this year, jobs losses were lower than expected — and there was much rejoicing. But the economy more than made up for it the following month.

In short ... it may well be true that jobs losses won't be as severe as had been expected/feared when the next jobs report comes out next week. But, at this time of the year, that could be due to employers hiring seasonal workers in (perhaps unduly optimistic) anticipation of the holiday shopping season. So let's be patient this time and wait a couple of months before we proclaim that the economy has turned the corner.

We all want things to get better. But many members of the press seem far too eager (to me) to embrace any modest tidbit of seemingly good economic news as evidence that Barack Obama's policies are working and the recession is over.

Sometimes it seems to me that these things are balanced precariously against other opinions on an invisible scale.

The best example I can think of is an e–mail message I received from a friend. Faced with these optimistic reports, my friend told me that she has always believed that America would face another Depression in her lifetime and she thinks this is it.

So which is it — a recession from which the economy may now be emerging or a Depression that will suck up even more lives and dreams?