The Economic Outlook

Harry Truman was credited with saying a lot of things, but plain–spoken Harry may not have said everything that folks often claim that he did.

For example, Truman made phrases like "The buck stops here!" and "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen" popular, but my understanding is that those lines did not originate with him.

The same may be true of another line that I was always told came from Truman: "If you laid the economists end to end, they'd point in all directions." Truman may not have been the one who said that line first, but that doesn't mean it isn't valid.

I guess there is an inherent risk in trying to predict the course of future events — which reminds me of a great line from an episode of the "M*A*S*H" TV series. In the episode, a soldier was pressuring the doctors to give him an assurance that an injured buddy was going to be all right. B.J. insisted that "the best medical opinion I can give you is that he might." Hawkeye was less diplomatic and, after telling the soldier that "we're not gods," said this: "We find out about the future the same way everyone else does."

It would be helpful for all of us if we could consult an oracle who could assure us when the recession would end and unemployment would start to decline. But if such a person exists, I haven't heard about him/her.

In that Trumanesque "point in all directions" fashion, USA Today has surveyed 51 economists, and the conclusion isn't good if you're unemployed. The severity of the news differs with each economist, though.

"Most expect continued deterioration in the overall economy over the next six months," write Barbara Hagenbaugh and Barbara Hansen. Beyond that, there is less agreement.

The median forecast says unemployment will peak at 9.8%. As for the overall state of economic affairs, "58% of the economists surveyed said the economy will weaken in the next six months, albeit at a slower pace, while the rest forecast an improvement."

Well, it is certainly a tough assignment, predicting the course of the future. The best we mere mortals can do — as the economists point in different directions — is hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

The economy may well turn around faster than anyone expects — or the recession may drag on into 2010, 2011 or longer.

The phrase "brave new world" comes to mind — although perhaps it should be revised and extended to something like this ...

You'll have to be brave to survive in this new world.