Counting the Votes

Political campaigns never really end in this country. As soon as one election is over, the parties start working on the next one.

Most elections are held in even–numbered years, but that is no guarantee of a respite. In some places, like Virginia, gubernatorial campaigns are held in odd–numbered years. And, when there is a vacancy to fill — because the incumbent was appointed to another post or died or whatever the reason — a special election may be held for that purpose.

Such is the case in New York's 20th Congressional District. The incumbent, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, was appointed by New York's governor to take Hillary Clinton's place as New York's junior senator so a special election was held last week to choose Gillibrand's successor. When the votes were counted, the Democrat (Scott Murphy) held a razor–thin lead over the Republican (Jim Tedisco), but officials had to allow some time for absentee ballots to arrive by mail.

Election officials are now in the process of counting those absentee ballots, and revised tabulations have Tedisco narrowly in front. More than 10,000 absentee ballots were mailed out prior to the special election, and nearly 7,000 have been returned, "including about 400 military and overseas ballots which cannot be counted until Monday," reports Thomas Dimopoulos in the Glens Falls Post–Star.

My understanding is that voters declare their party affiliations when they register to vote in New York. They can register as independents, but that means they cannot participate in party primaries. Much speculation apparently has centered on who has returned the absentee ballots, with the presumption being that those who are registered Democrats voted for Murphy and those who are registered Republicans voted for Tedisco.

Of course, people who are registered with one party have been known to vote for the candidate from the other party, so party affiliation is no guarantee. But logic suggests that a party's nominee is likely to perform well with his party's members.

The eventual outcome may hinge on which candidate does the best among the independent absentee voters, and both sides, naturally, are projecting that their candidate will emerge victorious. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, the seemingly never–ending Senate campaign in Minnesota drags on, although some are saying that the writing is on the wall for Republican Sen. Norm Coleman. The head of Minnesota's Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party appears to be ready to "turn up the heat" on Coleman, and he isn't the only one.

Ramesh Ponnuru writes, at National Review Online, that Coleman "is likely to lose, unnecessarily deprive Minnesota of a second senator, end his political career seen as a sore loser, and hurt his party in a state that is eager for this fight to be over." Ponnuru concludes that "if he leaves now, he will get some points for grace. ... [T]his is ... the last moment where he can exit with some dignity."

Of course, there are Republicans who are urging Coleman to continue the fight and issue every ballot challenge he can. One of the senators from my state has threatened "World War III" if Democrat Al Franken is seated before legal challenges have been exhausted. And Coleman's legal team has vowed to appeal the final figures.

Clearly, the stakes are high. If Franken prevails, the Democrats will be only one seat away from the magical 60–seat, "filibuster–proof" majority.

And that seat could be picked up in Kentucky.

No ballots are being counted in Kentucky right now, but there is much speculation these days about the prospects for former major league baseball pitcher and current Sen. Jim Bunning, who is up for re–election next year.

A little background here — Bunning has never been a hugely popular candidate statewide in Kentucky. He was elected by less than 7,000 votes out of more than 1.1 million votes in 1998, then he was re–elected with a margin of less than 23,000 votes out of more than 1.7 million votes in 2004.

Recent polls suggest he would be vulnerable against several potential Democratic opponents, one of whom, Attorney General Jack Conway, announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination today. Conway is the second Democrat to announce his candidacy for Bunning's seat — Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, who lost to Bunning in 2004, announced his candidacy in January.

That gives some ammunition to those Republicans who would like to have a different candidate carrying the GOP banner next year.

It's only April of 2009 — plenty of time for maneuvering before the voters go to the polls in Kentucky in 2010.