Those Pesky Approval Ratings

CNN reports that two former presidents who were voted out of office, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, are regarded much more favorably by the public today than they were at the end of their presidencies.

Which may give some hope to defenders of George W. Bush — many of whom insist that history will be kinder to him than his contemporaries.

CNN-Opinion Research Corp. reports that George H.W. Bush, who lost the presidency to Bill Clinton in 1992, receives a 60% approval rating from respondents today. Carter, who lost the presidency to Ronald Reagan (with George H.W. Bush as his running mate) in 1980, gets a positive reaction from 64% of respondents.

As CNN points out, those approval numbers are about double what those two presidents got at the end of their terms in office.

My guess is that it may take a very long time for George W. Bush to rebound in the public's estimation — if he ever does. His father has been out of office for less than 20 years. In Carter's case, his presidency ended nearly three decades ago.

The wreckage from George W. Bush's tenure is simply too vast to be sufficiently cleaned up in time for him to see his reputation improve during whatever is left of his lifetime.

Both Carter and George H.W. Bush had difficulties with the economy, of course.

But, unlike George W. Bush, neither of those former presidents launched an unprovoked invasion of a foreign country — although Bush's father did lead a global coalition that removed Saddam Hussein's troops from Kuwait in the Persian Gulf War, and Carter was consumed by the hostage crisis in Iran for the last year of his presidency.

The Roper Center has been compiling approval numbers for every president since Franklin D. Roosevelt.

George W. Bush, according to Roper, occupies both extremes — the highest approval rating (92% — in the days after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks) and the lowest approval rating (19% — around the time of the economic meltdown last September) of the last 12 presidencies.

Although Bush and those in his administration have spoken disparagingly of Bill Clinton, Bush's predecessor, Clinton's lowest approval rating was nearly twice as high as Bush's.

"Clinton's approval rating stood at 66 percent when he finished his second term in 2001," CNN reports, "and he gets a slightly better rating — 69 percent — today."

Carter's lowest approval rating was nearly 10 points higher than George W. Bush's. And Bush's father's low-water mark was precisely 10 points higher.

Even Richard Nixon and Harry Truman, the two presidents whose low approval ratings at the end of their presidencies are often compared to Bush's, stayed above 20%.

As Bush may have learned by now, approval ratings can be a double-edged sword.

In November 2004, when Bush had an approval rating of a little more than 50%, he was re-elected — and stated that he had earned "political capital" in the campaign.

But he squandered that "capital" quickly — sliding below 50% during the Terri Schiavo matter in March 2005 and hovering around 40% after Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, and he hasn't seen approval ratings in the 40% range for two years.

His successor will come into office with high expectations. CNN reports that Barack Obama's approval rating during the transition has exceeded 80%. If Obama doesn't meet those expectations, he risks a swift decline in his approval ratings and the alienation of many first-time voters who helped him win office in November.

Perhaps those voters will be patient, recognizing that undoing the damage wrought in the last eight years can't be done overnight. But it's hard to preach patience to people who have lost loved ones (in war or natural disaster), their jobs and/or their homes because of the decisions (or indecisions) of this president.

Matthew Dallek acknowledges, at Politico.com, that it is premature to judge the Bush administration. However, he writes, "it seems reasonable to assume that his place in history will hinge upon his handling of three catastrophes that all happened on his watch: the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Hurricane Katrina and the collapse of America’s financial system."

If George W. Bush hopes to resuscitate his ratings, it's going to require a lot of time and effort.