Saturday, May 24, 2008

Opposition Research


"I want this to be a campaign of ideas ... and these campaigns always wind up being about a candidate's high school transcripts. ... You know, if we just took the money the campaign spent on personality contests and partisan side shows, we could solve this country's problems and shut down talk radio, all at the same time."

Matt Santos, Democratic presidential candidate on "The West Wing"


There may never have been a time in American history when it was more important -- indeed, essential -- to have a "campaign of ideas" in a presidential election than it is in 2008.

The choices that are made this year truly will have a profound influence on the future of this country -- and the world.

But, what I'm hearing from the campaign trail is this:

  • Adam Nagourney reports, in the New York Times, that Republicans are concerned "about signs of disorder in [John McCain's] campaign."

    McCain, Nagourney says, has tried to mollify nervous Republicans by making reassuring speeches to the National Rifle Association and making statements about national security and taxes.

    The emphasis of the Republican campaign, McCain's advisers tell Nagourney, will be different once there is a Democratic nominee.

    "'The race changes the moment [Hillary Clinton] drops out and [Barack Obama] emerges as the official nominee,' said Charlie Black, a senior McCain adviser. 'Then the focus becomes on a two-person race and that leads to us getting more equal treatment in terms of getting airtime. We’ve had to fight with one hand tied behind our back.'"

    I haven't seen any plans, at this point, that suggest a sense of urgency for McCain to address the economic crisis in this country.

    But that's what this campaign is shaping up to be about. It's not really about the Iraq War (although I believe that is a subject the American people must discuss in depth during this campaign) or social issues or personalities.

  • Obama was in Florida this week, pledging to Cuban-Americans that he would meet with the Cuban leadership if he becomes president. Was he pandering? I'm not sure. After all, the crowds were pretty enthusiastic already, even before he said anything.

    Or, for that matter, as he told one boisterous crowd during his swing through Florida, "I haven't done anything yet." How true, how true.

  • No one seems to be talking about it, but The Economist says inflation is back. "If you measure the numbers correctly, two-thirds of the world's population will probably suffer double-digit rates of inflation this summer."

  • This week, the Democratic National Committee unveiled a website designed for opposition research into McCain's positions on various issues. Called McCainPedia, it's a good start.

    But that's all it is right now. A starting point.

I've been looking at this DNC website on McCain. But, while I've found a few entries on economics, I haven't found anything about energy.

In these turbulent times, both parties should have websites like that one that give voters access to information. Especially information about things like policies on bringing down gas prices and food prices.

Things that have a direct impact on lives.

But voters need to take it on themselves to research the candidates and learn as much as they can about what each one believes about the issues facing America today.

And nothing has an impact that is more direct or more personal than the economy.

Whatever else is happening in your life, the condition of the economy influences it.

Consider this. If you drive a vehicle that gets 20 miles/gallon and you have to drive 20 miles to get to work and 20 miles to return home (as many Americans living in the so-called "bedroom communities" near large cities do), you'll soon be paying $8/day just to drive back and forth to work.

Not too long ago, that round trip cost $4 or $5.

Which means you'll be paying $15 to $20 more per week just to drive to your job and return home. That's $65 to $86 more per month.

Did you just get a $1,000/year raise? Well, that should just about cover the increase in fuel costs -- assuming the price increases stop when we reach $4/gallon.

Oh, wait a minute. I didn't factor in the federal and state taxes that will be withheld. Guess that raise won't completely cover the fuel price increase after all.

Sorry about that.

Besides, my calculation never accounted for the increased prices for everything else. Guess you'll have to (pardon the pun) eat that loss.

Do you think fuel price increases will ever stop?

Peter Gosselin writes, in today's Los Angeles Times, that the economy may have reached a "tipping point" with the ever-escalating prices of gas and oil.

I don't think you need to be an economist to figure that one out.

Although it appears that some financial experts are just realizing that gas prices are making it harder and harder for average Americans to make ends meet.

Especially, as Gosselin reports, with "Ford Motor Co.'s announcement Thursday that it was abandoning any hope of making a profit this year or next now that sales of its gas-guzzling pickup trucks and Explorer sport utility vehicles have plunged."

I have a feeling there will be a lot of people who have been working for Ford Motor Co. who will be without jobs before long.

Would that be an economic epiphany?

This week, gas prices at the stations in my neighborhood moved closer to $4/gallon. They haven't reached that level yet, but it's really only a matter of time before they do.

The posted prices are now $3.85/gallon. That's an increase of 20 cents/gallon in less than two weeks.

At this rate, we'll be in $4/gallon territory by the time they hold the third race in thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown on June 7.

Energy in general is going to cost me a lot more in 2008 than it did in 2007. Even though virtually the only driving I do is to work and back.

I just received my electric bill covering most of the month of April. The total was a bit higher than I paid at this time last year, but temperatures and rainfall were about the same, so the increase wasn't drastic, just noticeable.

I live in Texas, and temperatures in the second half of May have been higher than usual -- so I expect my next utility bill to be higher as well. And summer in Texas is always hot. Temperatures are going to be into triple digits before long, and they will stay there for weeks, if not months.



"If I owned hell and Texas, I would rent out Texas and live in hell."

Gen. Phillip Henry Sheridan, Union army






With spending power as restricted as it has been, if we see temperatures that are comparable to the summers of 1998 or 1980, we'll be facing a crisis that's almost unimaginable -- thousands of deaths, most of them elderly people on fixed incomes or the unemployed who will try to rely solely on box fans to cool their homes so they can save money on their utility bills.

In some of these homes, children will die from the heat. And there will be dead dogs and cats in the homes of both the elderly and the unemployed.

That is, if malnutrition doesn't kill them first.

I went to the store on my way home from work yesterday. I paid about the same amount as I was paying each time I bought groceries at this time last year -- but I left the store with about half as much.

And there are some things I just don't buy anymore.

I'm not doing much for the Memorial Day weekend. I'm not going anywhere or doing anything special. But I decided to treat myself just a little and make hamburgers on the holiday. Nothing fancy. Just something sort of festive.

Something that reminds me of the happy days of my childhood, when my family would grill hamburgers on summer evenings and make homemade ice cream. (Just for the record, I'm not making homemade ice cream this year!)

But this year, instead of ground beef, I've been buying ground turkey meat. You can substitute it for ground beef, it costs less and it doesn't taste bad -- but turkey burgers just isn't the same, is it?

Maybe it's healthier, but it just isn't the same.

I guess the "good old days" weren't as good as we thought they were. And longing for them won't bring them back.

In 2008, we must talk about the future. About making tough choices.

We simply cannot be bogged down by side issues.

Not again.

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