Big Brown Stays On Track for Triple Crown

Bill Dwyre of the Los Angeles Times says Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown should be called "Foregone Conclusion."

I guess if anyone could give us the real inside information, it would be Mister Ed.

But Mister Ed died many years ago. And, besides, no one can talk to a horse, of course.

So we'll have to look for insight from the humans who watch horse racing for a living.

"The foregone conclusion is that Big Brown will win the June 7 Belmont, making him the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978," Dwyre writes. "That's a huge deal. In the 30 years since Affirmed did it, 10 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness and failed in the Belmont."

That roster of horses that were unable to close the deal for the Triple Crown includes Real Quiet, ridden by Kent Desormeaux, Big Brown's jockey, a decade ago.

If Saturday's race is any indication, Desormeaux might finally get that Triple Crown that eluded him with Real Quiet.

As I watched Big Brown turn on the engines and leave the Preakness field in his dust yesterday, it occurred to me that I have seldom seen a horse pull away from the pack down the stretch and make the other horses actually look like they were standing still.

But that's what Big Brown did at Pimlico Race Course yesterday.

In Dwyre's words, "Big Brown went to a gear other horses only dream of."

And, if the horse racing community can't come up with a bona fide challenger, the same thing will happen in three weeks.

And horse racing's Triple Crown drought will be over.

Thirty years is the longest stretch between Triple Crown winners in the sport's history. Statistically, we're long overdue for a Triple Crown winner.

But, in case you're tempted to wager your life savings on Big Brown, think again.

As I pointed out yesterday -- and as Dwyre points out today -- there have been 10 times in the last 30 years when a horse entered the Belmont after having won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

All 10 horses were big betting favorites. All 10 horses lost.

It looks promising for Big Brown. Then again, it looked promising for those other 10 horses, too.

I've known a few horse racing aficionados, and one of them expressed the perfect cautionary statement for this situation.

"There's no such thing as a sure thing," he said. "That's why they call it gambling."