Entering the Home Stretch in Iowa

As the races in Iowa near the finish lines, a friend of mine, who was in Des Moines on business this week, reports that everyone in Iowa has an opinion about what will happen in the Jan. 3 caucuses, but no one has any hard facts.

The latest poll of Democrats, from American Research Group, shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama, 29% to 25%, with John Edwards drawing 18%.

Mike Huckabee tops the Republicans with 28%. Astonishingly, the ARG survey shows John McCain running second with 20%. In most of the recent polls in Iowa, McCain has been registering in single digits.

But the numbers suggest that he has gained support as support has dropped for Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Romney was third with 17% and Rudy Giuliani was fourth with 13%. Thompson registered in single digits and those claiming to be undecided are at 11%.

E.J. Dionne writes in the Washington Post today that Huckabee scares the Republicans because he is an "evangelical populist."

Dionne points out that, in an endorsement of Romney, National Review fretted about the future of the conservative coalition that has been responsible for the Republican Party's successes in the last few decades.

Dionne suggests that the "crackup" that National Review fears already may have begun. The Pew Research Center identified two years ago a sub-group within the GOP, representing about one-third of its base, called "pro-government conservatives." These voters are religious and socially conservative, but they favor things that are not considered traditionally Republican, like more government involvement in regulation and more financial aid for feeding the poor.

"The faithful are restive," concludes Dionne, "tired of being used and no longer willing to do the bidding of a crowd that subordinates Main Street's values to Wall Street's interests."

As The New York Times observes, Romney is learning that “facts are stubborn things.” The Times refers to the assertion that Romney's father marched with Martin Luther King, well before the Mormon church reversed its racial discrimination policy. Turns out, that might not be quite true.

It will be interesting to watch the Republican race in the next several weeks.