The Results From Illinois

Following yesterday's Illinois primaries, we now know the major–party nominees who will be competing for the U.S. Senate seat that was held, briefly, by Barack Obama.

Republicans overwhelmingly chose Rep. Mark Kirk of the 10th District, which is a Democratic–leaning district that gave Obama more than three–fifths of its votes in 2008. He will be opposed by Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who won the Democratic primary in less spectacular fashion (meaning he did not receive a majority of the vote).

Perhaps Giannoulias will keep the seat in Democratic hands, where it has been for all but six of the last 40 years. Recent polls suggest that he may be in a good position to do so. Public Policy Polling reported last week that he leads Kirk by eight points. The same poll also suggested he held narrow leads over his Democratic challengers. As it turned out, his margins were a bit higher than the poll claimed.

PPP's results, though, may be suspect, given the fact that it has a reputation for leaning to the Democratic side. So it may be useful to review the results of other polls, like Rasmussen Reports, which has been regarded, in recent years, as one of the most accurate polls around. In December, Rasmussen reported that Giannoulias' lead was only three points.

The same poll, incidentally, showed virtually no difference (given that the margin of error was plus or minus 4½ points) between the two candidates when respondents were asked if their impressions were very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable.

The races for the gubernatorial nominations were much closer and, at this point, have not been settled. Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, who became governor when Rod Blagojevich was removed from office last year, leads his challenger by a little more than 7,000 votes. On the Republican side, state Sen. Bill Brady leads a field of seven, but he leads his nearest challenger, state Sen. Kirk Dillard, by about 750 votes. The candidate who is currently third trails Brady by about 8,400 votes.

Once all the ballots have been counted, the battle may turn out to be between someone other than Quinn and Brady. But, if their leads hold up, that would contradict Rasmussen's findings, which were that Quinn's challenger, Dan Hynes, led the governor by six points and Brady was a distant fourth on the Republican side.

Were there any lessons to be learned? Nothing major that I know of. I don't know of any House incumbents who were running for re–election but were denied their party's nomination.