He's the director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. He also runs a website called the Crystal Ball, which assesses congressional and gubernatorial races — and presidential races every four years.
Sabato also shows up, from time to time, as an analyst on TV networks like CNN.
And the next time I go to the horse track, I want Sabato at my side.
I've been looking at his final election projections, which were posted November 3, the day before the election.
- In the presidential race, he appears to have predicted nearly every state correctly.
At this point, Missouri is the only state left that is too close to call. Sabato predicted it would vote for Barack Obama — according to the latest results I've seen, it is leaning to John McCain. If that holds, it will be only the second time in a century that Missouri has supported the losing candidate.
Sabato also predicted that McCain would win Indiana. That's understandable, given Indiana's long history of supporting Republican presidential nominees. But Indiana voted for Obama.
Nevertheless, Sabato correctly predicted that Obama would win Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. He also predicted the Democratic victory in Nevada. All four states voted for Bush last time — as did Ohio, which voted for Obama this time. Sabato predicted that one, too.
Even if Missouri stays with McCain, Sabato will have a success rate of better than 95%.
And, in the Electoral College, he could be a single vote from being right on the money. He predicted Obama would win 364 electoral votes. Currently, Obama has 365 electoral votes — but, if Nebraska observed the traditional winner-take-all system for distributing its electors, he would be at 364 (I'll be writing more about this soon). Both Indiana and Missouri have 11 electoral votes so if Missouri stays with McCain, it's an even swap for Sabato. - There are three races that are yet to be decided in the Senate. Republicans currently hold all three, and they currently lead in all three. But, as I mentioned in my earlier post, circumstances do exist in each race that could reverse the outcomes.
At the moment, the Democrats have a lead of 57-40 over the Republicans (including the two senators who are independent/socialist who currently caucus with the Democrats), which is a gain of six seats.
Sabato predicted that the Democrats would gain seven or eight seats, falling just short of the "filibuster-proof" three-fifths majority.
His prediction included Elizabeth Dole's defeat in her campaign for re-election in North Carolina.
What about the three races that are up for grabs?
Well, in Alaska, Sabato predicted that Sen. Ted Stevens would be defeated. He has a narrow lead that could be overturned when some 50,000 absentee and uncounted ballots are added to the mix.
In Minnesota, where the law requires a recount, Sabato predicted incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman would prevail over comedian Al Franken.
And, in Georgia, Sabato correctly predicted the general election would not produce a winner and would end up in a runoff. Beyond that, he didn't predict who would win. Perhaps he'll post a prediction at some point. - And in the House, Sabato predicted the Democrats would pick up 26 seats, bringing their total to more than 260.
He may have been overly optimistic about Democratic gains in the House, but it's still a little early to tell.
His actual projection stated that Democrats would hold 262 seats when Congress convenes in January. At the moment, Democrats appear to hold 255 seats with six races still too close to call.
So mathematically, Sabato could be almost right on the nose in the House races as well. In many ways, I think that is the most remarkable of the predictions, considering the localized nature and sheer number of the House races.
To be that accurate requires in-depth knowledge of more than 400 congressional districts.
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