History Can Be Inconvenient

I had dinner with my father this evening, and I was listening to the radio as I drove home. A conservative commentator was consoling a caller who was distraught over the election by telling her that John McCain's loss was virtually inevitable because a political party rarely wins three consecutive elections.

"It almost never happens," he said.

Actually, that isn't true.

The commentator observed that Republicans won three elections in a row in 1980, 1984 and 1988 — but he said the GOP owed the victory in '88 more to the personal popularity of Ronald Reagan, who was barred by law from seeking a third term, than to the appeal of George H.W. Bush.

That part may be true. Reagan left office in January 1989 a popular figure, as even those who disagreed with him would admit. I remember people I worked with speculating that Reagan could have easily won a third term if he'd been permitted to run (even though he was in his late 70s).

But, while I acknowledge that a political party hasn't won three consecutive elections (or more) very often in the lifetimes of most of the people in this country, it has not been true that it "almost never happens."

It happened several times in the 20th century.

For example, the Democrats won five straight presidential elections after the stock market crash (1932, 1936, 1940, 1944 and 1948). In fact, between the Republican victories in 1928 and 1952, my parents were born, grew up, graduated from different high schools, met in college and got married.

Before that, the Republicans won three straight presidential elections after the end of World War I (1920, 1924 and 1928) and won four straight around the start of the century (1896, 1900, 1904 and 1908).

In the 19th century, the Republicans won six consecutive elections (1860, 1864, 1868, 1872, 1876 and 1880).

I'll tell you what "almost never happens," though.

Until Bill Clinton and (if he lives until January 20) George W. Bush, America had "almost never" had back-to-back presidents who served two full terms.

In fact, it's only happened once before — a couple of centuries ago, when the third (Thomas Jefferson), fourth (James Madison) and fifth (James Monroe) presidents each served two full terms. But all three men became president in the days before the electors in the Electoral College were chosen by popular vote.

So, since the election of the presidential electors was put in the hands of the people more than 180 years ago, America has never had back-to-back presidents who served two full terms.

That streak will end if Bush lives to Inauguration Day.

From the perspective of history, it doesn't bode well for Barack Obama. In a nation in which back-to-back presidents serving two full terms "almost never happens," it's practically inconceivable that three consecutive presidents could accomplish it.

But that was precisely what happened in the historical precedent I just cited — three two-term presidencies in a row.

So it's not unheard-of. It just "almost never happens."