A Modest Prediction

I'm not gifted with insights that tell me when the presumptive presidential nominees will announce their selections for running mate.

Nor do I have any inside information on who those choices will be.

But Barack Obama will accept his party's nomination in a little more than two weeks.

And John McCain will accept his party's nomination in a little more than three weeks.

So I don't think I'm going out on much of a limb here when I say that we'll know both parties' tickets within a month.

And my predictions on the identities of the running mates aren't based on any scientific methodology — just gut instincts (which means I'm just as likely to be wrong as I am to be right!).

Anyway, here (briefly) is my prediction:

• Democrats: I think Obama's best choice is Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico. With experience as a representative, governor and diplomat, Richardson has a résumé that few people can match.
  
  He's ready to be president if needed, and, being part Hispanic, he can attract support from the fastest-growing ethnic community in this country — a minority group that the Democrats haven't already tapped (unlike, for example, the black community — which has been voting nearly unanimously for Democrats for generations).
  
  Based on what I've been reading lately, I would say Obama's most obvious choice, at this point, is Tim Kaine, governor of Virginia. I don't think he brings to the table what Richardson does, but he has gubernatorial experience in a Southern state, and his popularity in his home state could help flip Virginia to the Democrats after spending four decades in the Republican column.
  
  I'm just not sure Kaine is quite as prepared to step in as Richardson is.
  
  So I predict that Obama will pick Richardson to be his running mate.


• Republicans: McCain has less of a margin for error — and he has fewer solid options than Obama does.
  
  It's a critical decision that McCain must make.
  
  I think the most obvious choice is Mitt Romney, McCain's former rival for the nomination who has been openly campaigning for the No. 2 spot on the ticket. I'm not convinced that McCain and Romney have patched up their differences, though, and I think being able to have a good personal relationship with his running mate is important to McCain.
  
  So, in spite of all the things that Romney could bring to the ticket, I believe McCain will go with the choice that I think best suits his need for someone he can get along with — former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge.
  
  Ridge has a varied résumé of his own — in addition to being a former governor, he's been a representative and a Cabinet member.
  
  He may not be as conservative as some would like — he favors an accelerated death penalty process and he's against gay marriage but he's pro-choice, in spite of his Catholic upbringing.
  
  And he doesn't provide much contrast in age to McCain — Ridge will turn 63 on Aug. 27, and McCain will turn 72 two days after that.
  
  But there's a strong chemistry between the two men, and I think that's something that is important to McCain.

So that's my prediction.

Obama-Richardson vs. McCain-Ridge.

We'll find out soon if I'm right!