The Making of a House Race 2008

The Lafayette (La.) Advertiser reports that a race for the House seat in Louisiana's 7th District is starting to take shape.

The district is in the southwestern corner of the state, including within its boundaries the cities of Lafayette and Lake Charles. If you've never been there, it's Cajun country — food, language, clothing, music, everything.

Its political history has been varied. Nationally, the district has supported the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1972. It is currently represented in the House by a Republican, Charles Boustany, who was elected four years ago.

In fact, Boustany was in his first year in the House when Hurricane Katrina swept through the Gulf Coast region — although it was actually Hurricane Rita a few weeks later that had the more devastating, long-term impact on the area.

Katrina was more correctly New Orleans' disaster, and many people in the 7th District bitterly complained that "Rita amnesia" deprived the area of help it needed while New Orleans was the focus of national attention, if not the actual recipient of necessary assistance, for its hurricane experience.

Prior to Boustany's election in 2004, the district was represented by Democrats, Chris John (1997-2005) and Jimmy Hayes (1987-1997). And before that, future Senator John Breaux represented the district.

Boustany, who was a practicing surgeon for more than 20 years, won the seat when it was open in 2004, becoming the first Republican to represent that part of the state since the 19th century. John, the incumbent, was one of several politicians who decided to seek Breaux's open Senate seat in the state's unique open primary.

(John finished second, but he received only 29% of the vote. Republican David Vitter received 51% of the vote against a divided Democratic field and avoided a campaign-extending runoff.

(Last summer, it was revealed that Vitter's phone number appeared on the "D.C. Madam's" call list. The "D.C. Madam" committed suicide in May, and it remains to be seen whether that relationship will affect Vitter's chances of re-election in 2010.)

Meanwhile, back in the 7th District ...

The Advertiser reports that political observers expect state Sen. Don Cravins Jr. to challenge Boustany. Cravins' father sought the seat in 2004 and was narrowly edged out for a runoff spot against Boustany. At the time, Cravins' father felt he had been snubbed by the national Democratic Party.

Cravins is black and might benefit from a large turnout of blacks motivated to vote for Barack Obama's presidential campaign, the Advertiser says, but "he's not MoveOn.org material. His family made its name in business."

Moreover, "Boustany will not go gently," the Advertiser says. "The 7th is, fundamentally, a conservative district, in both senses of the word. The district has changed from Democratic to Republican over the years, but voters haven't turned out an incumbent in more than a generation."

And the Advertiser cautions about something else. "While Boustany's early association with the Bush administration might hurt him elsewhere, Bush-bashing never really caught on around here."

Again, the national tickets could have an as-yet unseen influence on the congressional race farther down the ballot — particularly if Louisiana's Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal is John McCain's running mate.

This election year is shaping up to be a volatile one in Louisiana. So far, Larry Sabato is focusing his attention on two other House races in Louisiana, but it's possible that the 7th District will be added to the list as time goes by.

It's a district worth keeping an eye on.