Looking Ahead to the General Election

It is about five months until Americans will elect their next president.

The complete tickets haven't been named yet (neither Barack Obama nor John McCain are likely to announce their choices for running mates for at least a couple of months) so there's no way to know what kind of electoral advantages (or disadvantages) need to be factored in on either side.

And many things can happen between now and November -- more things than most humans can imagine.

Dan Balz says, in the Washington Post, that McCain and Obama are going to redraw the electoral map.

But I honestly don't think the map will look significantly different this year than it's looked over the last few decades.

Based on past voting results and conventional wisdom, here's how I see things shaping up.

Northeast

I've put 11 states and the District of Columbia in this group, worth a total of 117 electoral votes.

If voting patterns hold up, Obama is likely to win most of the states in the Northeast. From Maine to Maryland (and as far west as Pennsylvania), it should be a sea of blue states -- with the possible exception of New Hampshire, a state that has always marched to the beat of its own drum.

McCain's march to the nomination started with his victory in the New Hampshire primary, and he won the primary there eight years ago, setting up a brutal battle with George W. Bush in the GOP's South Carolina primary.

I'm going to predict that McCain will win New Hampshire in the general election -- possibly while the voters there are splitting their ballots and electing a Democrat to the Senate.

If McCain takes New Hampshire, he gets 4 electoral votes. The remaining 113 (from Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont) I expect to go to Obama.

South

In the 12 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia) I've lumped into this category, the historical pattern seems to favor McCain in all of them.

Some things might change, depending on variables we know nothing about right now.

For example, Obama might carry Virginia if his running mate turns out to be Sen. Jim Webb or Gov. Tim Kaine. Or there may be other Democrats from Southern states who might be chosen -- and consequently put their states into play.

But otherwise I see McCain winning all 160 electoral votes.

Industrial Midwest

Obama's home region has seven states and has been a battleground in recent elections. It will probably be a battleground again this year.

History tells me that, if the race is close in Indiana, Obama will win the election. But if Indiana gives McCain a big victory, it could be a sign that he's going to win the election.

Right now, I see McCain probably taking five states and Obama taking two. I think McCain will probably win Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and West Virginia, for a total of 61 electoral votes. I think Obama will win Illinois and Wisconsin for a total of 31 electoral votes.

If those predictions hold up, our totals so far are:

McCain, 18 states, 225 electoral votes.

Obama, 12 states and D.C., 144 electoral votes.

Heartland

In the Heartland region, I've put 11 states; mostly for convenience, this includes most of the remaining states in the interior United States, stopping at the eastern boundaries of Idaho, Utah and Arizona. They are worth 65 electoral votes.

The largest states in the group are Missouri (11 electoral votes) and Minnesota (10 electoral votes). The results in Missouri will be worth watching on Election Night because of Missouri's reputation as a bellwether state.

The remaining nine states are worth less than 10 electoral votes each, and many are worth only 3 or 5 electoral votes. They are typical of the small, rural states in which Republicans have done so well for years.

Historical voting patterns suggest McCain will carry most of these states, and I'm inclined to predict that Missouri will also vote for McCain. But I think Obama will probably carry another bellwether state in this region, New Mexico.

So this may be the election that gives us the bellwether state that is the most reliable when it comes to predicting the outcome of a presidential election.

Colorado is tough for me to predict. It has voted Republican in nine of the last 10 elections, but there have been indications that Democrats are gaining strength in that state. The fate of its 9 electoral votes may remain in doubt until late on Election Night -- and those votes may prove to be crucial to the winner of the election.

Right now, I'm going to predict that Colorado remains in the Republican column.

That gives us three states (Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico) worth 22 electoral votes for Obama, eight states (Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming) worth 43 electoral votes for McCain.

Running total --

McCain, 26 states, 268 electoral votes

Obama, 15 states and D.C., 166 electoral votes

West/Pacific Coast

This region favors Democrats historically, and Obama should win most of the electoral votes. Of course, that includes the expected Democratic victory in California.

But I've also included in this region five states (Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Nevada and Utah) worth 27 electoral votes that I expect to vote for McCain. And that should be more than enough to give him the election.

In addition to California, Obama should carry Hawaii, Oregon and Washington for a total of 77 electoral votes.

Final Tally

McCain, 31 states, 295 electoral votes.

Obama, 19 states and D.C., 243 electoral votes.

A final point ...

Most experts seem to believe that as many as 11 states could go either way -- Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Those states are worth 120 electoral votes.

Frankly, I hesitate to put Indiana on that list, but, for a variety of reasons, veteran political observers say Indiana will be a battleground state. And I feel the same way about North Carolina and Virginia. They may turn out to be battlegrounds, but I think history suggests that the Democratic ticket won't win in either state.

Let me remind you. These are merely historically based projections, and they are subject to change. It will be several months before I'm ready to make my final 50-state prediction in this race.

This is how it looks to me right now, but, clearly, in June, nothing is written in stone.