We don't yet know the outcome in Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania.
Well, OK, we do know — probably — that Democrat Conor Lamb beat Republican Rick Saccone for an open House seat — but it is so close that, even after the mail–in ballots are counted, there will probably be a recount. Recounts usually confirm the initial results — but not always so there is still no winner.
But the question will remain — what does this victory mean for Democrats in a political environment that appears to favor them?
Lamb did not run as a far–left Democrat. Indeed he took more centrist positions on issues like guns, and he disavowed Nancy Pelosi, which was the prudent approach in Western Pennsylvania. Other positions would have meant almost certain defeat.
But centrists are a vanishing breed in American politics.
From the days of Jimmy Carter to the days of Bill Clinton, the area was fairly reliable territory for Democrats, and that was frequently seen in its House representation as well, although two future Republican senators represented the district in the '70s and '90s, but it has been trending Republican since the turn of the millennium.
Much was made of the fact that Donald Trump won the district by 20 percentage points in 2016 even though Trump's share of the vote in that district was the same as Mitt Romney's four years earlier. Barack Obama fared slightly better in 2012 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 only because Libertarian Gary Johnson siphoned off 3% of the vote in 2016. John McCain received 55% of the district's vote in 2008, and George W. Bush carried 54% of the district's ballots in 2004.
An extreme–left stance probably would have resulted in Lamb's defeat, which leads us to the question of what the immediate future holds for Democrats. The assumption is that this will be the Democrats' year, and extreme positions will work in some places like San Francisco and New York, but they won't work in places like Pittsburgh.
Midterm election years are quite different from presidential election years. It is easier to nationalize campaigns when there is a presidential race on the ballot. In midterms everything is more localized. Yes, to a degree, midterms are referendums on the president, but they are more about issues that concern the voters in specific states and districts.
Obviously, what works in one place won't necessarily work in another, but the midterms will be crucial for Democrats to establish their identity for the 2020 election, when the presidency will be on the ballot. Now is when the Democrats need to decide if they are going to take a more moderate approach or veer farther to the left.
If they want to take a more inclusive approach in the hope of luring disaffected Democrats who abandoned the party in recent years, they may risk a rebellion from the radical fringe.
It will be interesting to see which direction they choose.
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