When you look at the presidential voting history in the state of Virginia, it’s almost impossible to imagine that state being in the Democrats’ column in November.I’ve heard the talk about how Barack Obama’s race will be a factor in black turnout. It may well boost turnout in some states — that remains to be seen. But the black population in Virginia is about 20% while whites account for more than 70% of the state’s population. The black influence on voting patterns isn't as pronounced in Virginia as it is in some Southern states.
So I have to wonder if race will be a factor — and, if it is, which side will it favor?
Granted, Virginia isn’t as Republican as it once was. It elected Democrats governor in 2005 (Tim Kaine, who is barred by state law from running for re-election in 2009) and 2001, and it elected a Democrat senator in 2006 (Jim Webb’s narrow victory over incumbent George Allen). Both Kaine and Webb have been mentioned as vice presidential prospects.
In presidential politics, George W. Bush’s share of the vote in Virginia remained consistent — he won by 8% in 2000 and by 9% in 2004.
Bill Clinton made things difficult for Virginia Republicans. He lost both times — but only by 4 percentage points in 1992, and he narrowed the gap to only 2 percentage points when he lost to Bob Dole in Virginia in 1996.
Before that, well, George H.W. Bush ran well ahead of his national average with 60% of the Virginia vote in 1988. Ronald Reagan had no trouble carrying the state in 1984 (62%) or 1980 (53% to Jimmy Carter’s 40%).
Nevertheless, in both Republican and Democratic years, Virginia has voted for the Republican presidential nominee consistently for more than 40 years. It was the only Southern state, for example, to vote against fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976.
And, with the exception of Lyndon Johnson's victory in Virginia in 1964, Virginia has voted for the Republican candidate for president in every election since 1952.
So it seems to me that, if there’s going to be a ”coattail” effect that allows Obama to win in Virginia, it’s going to have to be of the trickle up variety — from farther down the ballot. Obama may have to depend on the success of the Virginia Democrats on the ballot with him.
And that may very well be what happens.
But it seems to me that there could be some ticket splitting going on in Virginia in November. And it's hard to tell which candidate that would favor — or even if it does favor one or the other.
On one hand, you’ve got an interesting Senate race for John Warner’s seat.
Senate races, of course, involve the voters of an entire state, and this one matches two of the state’s recent governors — Democrat Mark Warner (no relation to the retiring Republican senator) and Republican Jim Gilmore.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, says the seat is likely to switch to the Democrats.
So, if there’s any validity to a ”reverse coattails” theory, Mark Warner may help attract votes to Obama’s campaign because of what Sabato calls his ”wide appeal among independents.”
And an indication of the strength of Warner’s position may be found in Sabato’s report that Gilmore is ”having trouble funding his candidacy” after an unexpectedly hard-fought race for the Republican nomination.
I’m not ready to proclaim the GOP dead in the Old Dominion. I’m not even ready to predict that Obama can break the GOP’s uninterrupted four-decade grip on Virginia in presidential contests.
But I will concede that Sabato is probably correct when he asserts that ”Virginia’s years as a Republican stronghold are well over.” They certainly seem to be over when it comes to representation in the Senate — assuming that Mark Warner maintains his electoral advantage over Gilmore.
On the other hand, there are the state’s House races. It is the House races that prove Tip O’Neill’s famous political adage — ”All politics is local.”
For, indeed, House races tend to be about local issues, local concerns, and what the candidates can do about them in Washington. That, of course, is the purpose of a member of the House.
Sabato is keeping his eye on four House races in Virginia. Most of the state’s seats in the House went to Republicans in 2006 — the party retained its 8-3 advantage over the Democrats in a year that generally favored Democrats outside the South.
But the four districts Sabato is watching all voted for the Republicans in 2006.
By implication, the three Democratic seats should be safe for the party, as should the other four GOP seats (which includes the district that was represented by Jo Ann Davis, who died of breast cancer last October and was replaced, in a special election, by a Republican who seeks a full term this November).
Sabato says the conditions are favorable for the GOP in three of the districts — the incumbents are seeking re-election in all three.
The fourth race to watch is for the open 11th district seat, being vacated by Tom Davis, who was once considered a leading contender for John Warner’s Senate seat. Sabato says Davis’ House seat is like to go to Democrat Gerry Connolly, chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors.
Again, the ”trickle up” theory may be at work, depending upon how well each party's candidates can encourage voters in their districts to come to the polls and support their bids. How competitive a race is perceived to be can be a driving force for voter turnout.
- In the 2nd District, which as Sabato points out "lies predominantly in the conservative, military-friendly Virginia Beach metropolitan area," Sabato rates the district as only "leans Republican" (for incumbent Thelma Drake) instead of "likely Republican," as he says about the other two districts he's monitoring in which Republican incumbents are seeking re-election.
It's not a stretch to suggest that Drake may have a competitive race on her hands. Drake was elected to the House in 2004 with 55% of the vote, but she could only draw 51% in her re-election bid in 2006. So far, her only challenger is a diplomat with extremely low name recognition, which, as Sabato observes, should change as he "introduces himself to voters."
Still, in the all-important area of campaign financing, Drake apparently has raised four times as much money as her challenger. It may be hard for him to get his message out.
Meanwhile, Drake has compiled a House voting record that is more conservative on foreign policy than on social or economic issues — although her general record suggests a conservative tendency. - The 5th District occupies central and south-central Virginia. It's an historic district, where Lee surrendered to Grant to end the Civil War — although, in some ways, the war never really ended in southern Virginia, where Harry Byrd Sr. led a resistance effort that shut down some public schools in defiance of desegregation orders nearly a century after the end of the Civil War.
The incumbent, Virgil Goode (rhymes with "mood"), has something of a history himself. He was originally elected as a Democrat in 1996, but he switched to independent status in 2000 and became a Republican in 2002. His share of the vote has fluctuated with the fortunes of the Republican Party, but Sabato rates the district as "likely Republican."
While Goode's opponent has been successful raising money for his campaign, Sabato has a word of caution: "How optimistic should Democrats be? That remains to be seen. But if history is any predictor: not very."
Goode has a voting record that has been increasingly conservative on social issues but more moderate on economic issues and foreign policy. And, as Sabato writes, "The district is GOP country, with only the liberal city of Charlottesville to keep things potentially competitive." - The 10th district runs along the northern side of Virginia, and it includes part of Fairfax County, which has exploded in population and, by some estimates, is the home of the highest median annual income in the country — more than $71,000. Nevertheless, population seems to have leveled off in the county in recent years.
It is also an increasingly Democratic area, and the competitiveness of the House race may be a factor in whether the party can generate the kind of turnout it needs to flip the state to Obama in November.
The race will be a rematch of the 2006 campaign, in which Republican Frank Wolf, who has been in the House since 1980, defeated Democrat Judy Feder, 57% to 41%. (In 2004, Wolf outperformed George W. Bush in the district, receiving 64% of the vote while the president received only 55% — which was down from his showing in 2000, when Bush got 56% in the 10th.)
Feder, the dean of the Georgetown Public Policy Institute, has raised more than $1 million for the race, and Tom Davis, from the neighboring 11th district, "has warned that Feder's funds have put the seat in play," Sabato writes.
Wolf has compiled a moderate-to-conservative voting record in the House. But Feder apprently will have the active support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which she didn't have last time.
Sabato says the district is "likely Republican," even though he admits that it is "very much up in the air ... at both the presidential and congressional levels." - In the aforementioned 11th district, Tom Davis' departure has created a race that "leans Democratic," Sabato writes.
Davis' voting record on social and economic issues tended to be moderate, but he was increasingly conservative on foreign policy. And he polled pretty well in a district in which Bush struggled (Bush barely cleared 50% there in 2004, and he took 52% of the district's vote in 2000).
How heavy the turnout is for the open seat may be a factor in what happens in Virginia in national politics.
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